Friday, October 30, 2009

Gold Declines with Risk Aversion

Gold had a nice little pop yesterday as investors exited the Dollar in reaction to stronger than expected U.S. Prelim GDP data. However, as with the EUR/USD and GBP/USD, gold’s positive momentum fell short of important topside technical barriers, mostly notably $1050/oz and our 3rd tier uptrend line. Investors are now exiting their risk trades today as optimism wanes in the face of negatively mixed data. The S&P futures are also trading off by over -1% and crude over -2%. Gold is following its positive correlations to a tee today and is heading back below our 2nd tier uptrend line. Hence, markets are showing us that investor uncertainty is outweighing optimism. The positive Q3 earnings season has been priced in, and investors are now looking towards Q4 fundamental economic performance.

Despite today’s pullback in gold, the precious metal still has our 1st tier uptrend line to fall back on along with 10/27 and 10/28 lows. As for the topside, gold is facing a newly formed downtrend line along with its psychological $1050/oz level and 10/26 highs. Meanwhile, investors should monitor the EUR/USD’s ability to hold above its technical cushions along with the S&P’s battle at 1050. A large technical setback in either could drag gold lower due to their positive correlations.

Present Price: $1039.60/oz

Resistances: $1043.60/oz, $1046.91/oz, $1049.98/oz, $1053.76/oz, $1058.26/oz

Supports: $1036.03/oz, $1032.01/oz, $1029.41/oz, $1024.44/oz, $1018.53/oz

Psychological: $1050/oz, $1000/oz.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Gold Steady At $1040 As Traders Decide On The Dollar

Gold prices steadied around $1,040 an ounce on Wednesday, staying above three-week lows hit the day before when the dollar strengthened against the euro. The dollar held gains against a basket of currencies on Wednesday while the yen rose, as investors trimmed positions in higher yielding currencies as stocks fell on weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence figures. Traders and analysts said that given the rapid rise in gold prices, a pause in its rally was sensible, but the expected continuation of dollar weakness will also likely offer firm support around $1,000. Gold is trading at $1030 as of 21:33PM, GMT. Gold's Pool-Position is 82% Long, meaning that most Finotec are buying the precious metal.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Gold Stabilizes Following Monday’s Technical Setback

Gold is presently consolidating around our 2nd tier uptrend line after experiencing a solid down-bar backed by a pop in volume on Monday. Gold’s recent weakness came in reaction to a stronger Dollar, particularly against the EUR/USD. We notice the AUD/USD is drifting lower as well, and this is a negative sign for gold considering it has exhibited a stronger positive correlation with these two major crosses. Meanwhile, the S&P futures have dropped below our important 1st tier uptrend line and are presently testing their psychological 1050 level after New Home Sales printed negatively. The S&P’s decline beneath our 1st tier could indicate a retracement towards previous October lows and the psychological 1000 area. Any extended weakness in U.S. equities of this sort would likely yield a stronger Dollar due their positive correlation, and consequently weaker gold. All eyes will be on tomorrow U.S. Advance GDP data. Therefore, investors should keep a close eye in the S&P’s interaction with our aforementioned technicals and their reaction to econ data.

Technically speaking, gold has our 1st tier uptrend line and 10/6 lows to fall back on along with the highly psychological $1000/oz area should the markets take a turn for the worst. As for the topside, gold is creating some new topside barriers as the precious metal heads south, beginning with 10/6 and 10/7 highs as well as the psychological $1050/oz level.

Present Price: $1036.05/oz

Resistances: $1043.60/oz, $1046.91/oz, $1049.98/oz, $1053.76/oz, $1058.26/oz

Supports: $1036.03/oz, $1032.01/oz, $1029.41/oz, $1024.44/oz, $1018.53/oz

Psychological: $1050/oz, $1000/oz.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Gold Continues to Fluctuate Within a Converging Wedge Pattern

old has highlighted the relevance of the wedge pattern we spotted last week by bouncing off of our 2nd tier uptrend line once again. Meanwhile, our downtrend line is gradually converging with our 2nd tire uptrend line, implying gold may wake from its consolidative slumber soon. Fortunately for bulls, gold continues to set higher lows while hinting at a topside preference by continually resisting a noteworthy retreat below the highly psychological $1050/oz level. All eyes remain on the Dollar, particularly the Euro and Aussie crosses. Gold has seemed to follow the EUR/USD and AUD/USD more closely than the GBP/USD and USD/JPY due to the erratic behaviors of the BoE and BoJ, respectively. Therefore, investors should eye the EUR/USD’s ability to move higher and create some space between present price and the currency pair’s psychological 1.50 level. We notice a similar consolidative pattern in the AUD/USD, so investors should watch to see if the currency pair can break above its own October highs. A breakout in either major cross could result in a similar movement in gold.

Meanwhile, the S&P futures are in a topside battle of their own. The S&P has had a lot of trouble breaking through its psychological 1100 level. A large movement above 1100 in the S&P would likely come with a broad-based depreciation of the Dollar, thereby pushing gold higher due to correlative forces. As a result, investors should pay attention to the S&P’s reaction to upcoming Q3 earnings reports and econ data releases, most notably tomorrow’s CB and HPI data along with Wednesday’s Advance GDP and Durable Goods numbers. That being said, the presence of key econ and earnings releases among key psychological levels across the board presents the opportunity for high volatility should results steam in either highly positive or negative.

In terms of technicals, the topside barriers remain our makeshift downtrend line along with previous 2009 highs and the psychological $1075/oz and $1100/oz levels. As for the downside, the psychological $1050/oz level continues to serve as an important technical cushion along with our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines.

Present Price: $1058.50/oz

Resistances: $1058.75/oz, $1061.40/oz, $1065.15/oz, $1068.06/oz, $1070.66/oz

Supports: $1055.46/oz, $1051.91/oz, $1048.62/oz, $1045.32/oz, $1042.96/oz

Psychological: $1050/oz, $1075/oz, $1100/oz

Monday, October 26, 2009

Gold Continues to Fluctuate Within a Converging Wedge Pattern

Gold has highlighted the relevance of the wedge pattern we spotted last week by bouncing off of our 2nd tier uptrend line once again. Meanwhile, our downtrend line is gradually converging with our 2nd tire uptrend line, implying gold may wake from its consolidative slumber soon. Fortunately for bulls, gold continues to set higher lows while hinting at a topside preference by continually resisting a noteworthy retreat below the highly psychological $1050/oz level. All eyes remain on the Dollar, particularly the Euro and Aussie crosses. Gold has seemed to follow the EUR/USD and AUD/USD more closely than the GBP/USD and USD/JPY due to the erratic behaviors of the BoE and BoJ, respectively. Therefore, investors should eye the EUR/USD’s ability to move higher and create some space between present price and the currency pair’s psychological 1.50 level. We notice a similar consolidative pattern in the AUD/USD, so investors should watch to see if the currency pair can break above its own October highs. A breakout in either major cross could result in a similar movement in gold.

Meanwhile, the S&P futures are in a topside battle of their own. The S&P has had a lot of trouble breaking through its psychological 1100 level. A large movement above 1100 in the S&P would likely come with a broad-based depreciation of the Dollar, thereby pushing gold higher due to correlative forces. As a result, investors should pay attention to the S&P’s reaction to upcoming Q3 earnings reports and econ data releases, most notably tomorrow’s CB and HPI data along with Wednesday’s Advance GDP and Durable Goods numbers. That being said, the presence of key econ and earnings releases among key psychological levels across the board presents the opportunity for high volatility should results steam in either highly positive or negative.

In terms of technicals, the topside barriers remain our makeshift downtrend line along with previous 2009 highs and the psychological $1075/oz and $1100/oz levels. As for the downside, the psychological $1050/oz level continues to serve as an important technical cushion along with our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines.

Present Price: $1058.50/oz

Resistances: $1058.75/oz, $1061.40/oz, $1065.15/oz, $1068.06/oz, $1070.66/oz

Supports: $1055.46/oz, $1051.91/oz, $1048.62/oz, $1045.32/oz, $1042.96/oz

Psychological: $1050/oz, $1075/oz, $1100/oz

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Gold Consolidates while Setting Higher Lows

Gold continues to consolidate around the psychological $1500/oz level while setting lower highs and higher lows. This pattern tells us there is a wedge forming, which is why we installed a downtrend line. Gold’s sideways movement reflects investor indecisiveness in terms of whether to keep the risk rally rolling. Analysts and bankers are barking from both sides as doubt creeps back into the broader market. However, Q3 earnings are beating expectations and although econ data has been negatively mixed, it’s solid nonetheless. Meanwhile, the Fed’s Beige Book shows the central bank is not even close to tightening liquidity, meaning Dollar’s near-term downward trajectory is intact. However, the ECB is getting antsy and may opt to take some dovish action should the EUR/USD breakout to the topside again. On the other hand, actions speak louder than words, and overall central banks continue to gravitate towards a more hawkish monetary stance. This is good news for gold’s near to medium-term outlook since the precious metal is negatively correlated with the Dollar.

All eyes will be on the EUR/USD’s interaction with 1.50 and the Cable’s ability to separate itself further from 1.65. We recognize consolidation in the AUD/USD and technicals continue to favor the topside in all of these currency pairs. Therefore, gold’s present consolidation is not necessarily a bad thing since the process develops a new support base should investors decide to extend the precious metal’s rally towards $1100/oz. The EU will be releasing a wave of PMI numbers tomorrow to go along with Britain’s Prelim GDP and America’s Existing Home Sales data. Therefore, gold and the FX markets could experience heightened volatility as the week comes to a close.

Technically speaking, gold faces topside barriers in the form of our downtrend line along with 10/21, 10/20, and 10/14 highs. As for the downside, gold has our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with 10/21 and 10/16 lows. Additionally, the psychological $1500/oz level should continue to play a lead role as long as it’s in the picture.

Present Price: $1055.85/oz

Resistances: $1058.75/oz, $1061.40/oz, $1065.15/oz, $1068.06/oz, $1070.66/oz

Supports: $1055.46/oz, $1051.91/oz, $1048.62/oz, $1045.32/oz, $1042.96/oz

Psychological: $1050/oz, $1075/oz, $1100/oz

Monday, October 19, 2009

Gold's Consolidation Still in Progress.

Gold's consolidations from 1072 high is still in progress. As noted before, a short term top might be in place with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Some more consolidation would likely be seen with risk of another fall. But after all, we'd expect downside to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 931.3 to 1072 at 1018.3 and bring rally resumption. Above 1072 will target 1100 psychological resistance next.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1033.9 high confirms that long term up trend in Gold has resumed. Rise from 681 would likely develop into another set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 first and then 100% projection at 1258 next. On the downside, though, break of 985.5 support will dampen this bullish view and will turn focus back to 931.3 support instead.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Gold Consolidates around $1050/oz

Gold has bounced off our 2nd tier uptrend line and is presently consolidating around the psychological $1050/oz level as investors take profits in the EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and the S&P futures. Investors seem to be taking a breather ahead of public addresses from the RBA, Fed, and BoE along with BoJ minutes. Quotes from the central banks are bound to be FX movers since investors will be looking for their respective monetary stances. Meanwhile, gold continues to be more closely tied to the Euro and Aussie than the Pound and Yen. Yesterday reinforced this observation when gold contracted while the Pound and Yen surged. Therefore, investors should pay particularly close attention to activity in the EUR/USD and AUD/USD along with their major cross-pairs. Today’s Q3 earnings and U.S. econ data came in negatively mixed and are increasing investor uncertainty in regards to the rest of the earnings season. The negative development in earnings has put gold’s uptrend on pause.

Technically speaking, gold appears to be creating a top, yet it’s uncertain how lasting consolidation will be. We expect continued volatility in the FX markets next week, so investors should get a better idea of whether investors are willing to test $1075/oz or opt to lock in more profits. Gold’s longer-term bull trend is alive and well considering the historic breakout last week. Meanwhile, the $1050/oz zone should continue to serve as a psychological pull until the Euro or Aussie make a next noteworthy directional move. Gold has multiple uptrend lines serving as cushions along with 10/9 and 10/7 lows. However, a drop beneath our 1st tier uptrend line could result in a retracement towards September highs. Therefore, gold is stuck in an uncertain place right now. The precious metal’s impressive run supports the argument for further profit taking. However, gold would be inclined to participate to the topside should the Dollar experience another round of weakness against the Euro and Aussie. As for the topside, gold faces resistance in the form of 10/8 and 10/14 highs along with the psychological $1075/oz and $1100/oz levels.

Present Price: $1054/oz

Resistances: $1054.82/oz, $1058.54/oz, $1061.40/oz, $1065.15/oz, $1068.06/oz.

Supports: $1049.57/oz, $1046.40/oz, $1042.96/oz, $1039.01/oz, $1035.58/oz

Psychological: $1050/oz, $1075/oz, $1100/oz

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Gold Trades off 2009 Highs.

Gold is trading off 2009 highs after failing to close above $1070/oz on the 4-hour. Gold’s weakness comes despite strength in both the Euro and the Pound today. Meanwhile, the AUD/USD seems to be topping off in a sign that investors are locking in some profits. Therefore, it appears gold is finally setting a top despite how temporary it may be. Gold has been on a tear this month and it is healthy for the precious metal to be experiencing some profit taking and consolidation. However, investors should take note that the EUR/USD is separating itself from our key 3rd tire downtrend line and September highs. Therefore, the currency pair may be starting a new leg up even though it must deal with the psychological 1.50 level. Gold’s positive correlation with the EUR/USD should play a key role in determining the precious metal’s near-term path. Therefore, investors should eye the currency pair’s interaction with 1.50 should it be tested.

Speaking of psychological levels, gold and the S&P future are quickly approaching their respective 1100 levels. Additionally, the Cable is trading around 1.60 and the USD/JPY is fluctuating near 90. Therefore, the markets are reaching an important point concerning the continuation of the bull trend. Regardless, we have no reason to alter our positive outlook on gold trend-wise unless the FX markets experience a rapid appreciation of the Dollar. Meanwhile, gold’s movements for the rest of the week will rely upon the Dollar and its reaction to further Q3 earnings and U.S econ data. If these two fundamental elements continue to outperform, then gold has the ability to test $1100/oz fairly soon. As for the downside, gold has technical cushions in the form of multiple uptrend lines, 10/13 and 10/9 lows, and the psychological $1050/oz level.

Present Price: $1061.45/oz

Resistances: $1061.40/oz, $1065.45/oz, $1068.30/oz

Supports: $1058.54/oz, $1054.82/oz, $1052.80/oz, $1050.67/oz, $1048.60/oz, $1045.23/oz

Psychological: $1050/oz, $1075/oz, $1100/oz

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Gold Sets New Highs on Strong EUR/USD.

Gold is trading off fresh 2009 highs as the Dollar logs gains against the Euro and Aussie. However, this is after the EUR/USD popped past our key 3rd tier downtrend line and September highs. While a retracement beneath our 3rd tier downtrend line is possible, today’s movement in the EUR/USD could spell accelerated gains in the near future. The final obstacle the EUR/USD must overcome is its highly psychological 1.50 level. The reason we speak of the EUR/USD in relation to gold is because the precious metal has achieved its historic breakout without full cooperation from the Euro. The EUR/USD has been tightly correlated with gold throughout the year, implying gold’s accomplishment overcame quite a few obstacles of its own. Therefore, as we mentioned previously, a topside breakout in the EUR/USD could fuel further gains in gold. As a result, we feel a pressing need to highlight any noteworthy developments regarding the EUR/USD’s topside potential. Gold hasn’t given evidence of creating a lasting top since we have no historical reference to work with. Hence, gold’s uptrend is alive and boundless until we are able to initiate some credible downtrend lines.

Meanwhile, investors should eye near-term performances of both the AUD/USD and EUR/USD since gold should be positively correlated with these two major Dollar crosses. Furthermore, upcoming Q3 earnings and U.S. econ data should impact the FX markets, meaning gold will be influenced as well. Outperformance of earnings and data implies gains in U.S. equities and consequently serve as positive catalysts for gold’s uptrend, and vice versa. Technically speaking, it’s difficult to place topside technicals on gold other than the psychological $1075/oz and $1100/oz levels. As for the downside, the precious metal has developed a few technical cushions, including our multiple uptrend lines along with 10/13, 10/10, and 10/7 lows. Additionally, the psychological $1050/oz level should serve as a technical support.

Present Price: $1057.40/oz

Resistances: $1058.54/oz, $1061.40/oz, $1068.30/oz

Supports: $1054.82/oz, $1052.80/oz, $1050.67/oz, $1048.60/oz, $1045.23/oz, $1042.96/oz

Psychological: $1050/oz, $1075/oz, $1100/oz

Monday, October 12, 2009

Gold at $1052 Sharply Higher in Euros & Sterling, But Financial Press Still Unconvinced

The Gold Price ticked higher Monday morning in London, rising back through $1050 an ounce as world stock markets jumped and the Euro gained vs. the Dollar.

Government bonds also rose, as did crude oil, base metals and soft commodities.

London's AM Gold Fix was set 4.7% above last Monday's start at $1052 an ounce, while Eurozone investors now Ready to Buy Gold saw the price stand 4.0% better at a new 7-month high of 714 euro an ounce.

Gold priced in Sterling stood more than 6.1% above its level of last Monday morning, trading almost one-fifth higher at 666 pound an ounce from the mid-summer low.

'Today could be quiet,' says one London dealer in a note, 'as the US is on holiday and volumes low.'

'A short consolidation at this level would create a strong base for the next leg higher though,' says another.

'We do remain concerned that gold as an 'inflation trade' is both expensive and premature,' says a research note from J.P.Morgan in New York, 'but the flows speak for themselves.

'Gold has been the overwhelming beneficiary of investment allocations to commodities all year,' the former investment bank says, setting price targets of $1,000 an ounce between now and end-Dec., with a rise to $1,100 looking 'likely' for early 2010.

Last week saw betting on Gold Futures and options swell by 10% to a 15-month record of 635,000 contracts.

The 'net long' position held by hedge funds and other speculative players - meaning the number of bullish bets minus bearish contracts - rose to a fresh record of 259,000.

On the other side of this leveraged, derivative market, the 'net short' position held by commercial players such as miners, refineries and bullion banks hit a near record of 304,000 contracts.

'Other than being nice to have, the case for investing in gold looks to me like another example of the greater fool theory,' writes Anthony Hilton in the Evening Standard.

'[Gold] makes sense just as long as there is someone out there willing to pay even more for the metal than you did.'

'Gold's usefulness as an inflation hedge has been exaggerated,' agrees David Smith of London's Sunday Times - also judging gold's performance from the one-day spike of $850 an ounce, hit on 21st Jan. 1980.

'With many countries suffering deflation, inflation worries look misplaced.'

'Let's remember that the US bond market is many multiples bigger than the gold market,' says fixed-income strategist George Goncalves at broker Cantor Fitzgerald.

'As a bond analyst my money is on the bond market being right about inflation. There is no inflation now or in the near-term.'

'Gold is a volatile, high-risk asset that pays no income,' says Jeff Salway in The Scotsman, 'while the current high means investors have almost certainly missed out on the biggest price jumps.'

'Our target of $1,100 for gold in Q4:09 stands,' counters Walter de Wet at South Africa's Standard Bank here in London.

'While we see few inflationary pressures in large developed markets, this should not affect the Gold Price negatively. We believe Q4 seasonal jewelry demand, less scrap coming to the market (relative to previous periods when gold traded above $1,000) and investment demand...should see gold trade higher at the same Dollar/Euro exchange rate.'

Standard Bank's analysts expect the US Dollar to continue falling vs. the European single currency between now and March, dropping from $1.48 per Euro to $1.58 or worse.

'There's been talk about [Gold at] $1500, and I see that as perfectly achievable,' said Arthur Hood, CEO of Australia's second-biggest gold miner, Lihir Gold, in an interview this weekend.

'There's been a constant upward trend and we're not surprised by this at all. On the supply and demand side, there's gently declining mine supply but physical demand for gold is staying constant or actually increasing.'

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Gold Starts to Top Out After Incredible Run.

Gold is beginning to cool down following the amazing gold rush that took place in reaction to the RBA being the first central bank to raise rates following the beginning of the credit crisis. The AUD/USD took flight after the RBA’s decision in conjunction with much better than expected Aussie employment data. Breakouts in gold and the AUD/USD spurred a broad-based depreciation of the Dollar, only fueling gold’s bolt towards new record nominal highs. However, the psychological impact of the RBA’s monetary shock could start to wane since both the ECB and BoE kept their monetary policies unchanged today. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD still have to deal with a few technical barriers before participating more fully in the broad weakness of the Dollar. Attention will now turn to Q3 earnings season and the reaction of U.S. equities. Better than expected Q3 results would likely depreciate the Dollar further and help gold extend its breakout. Meanwhile, it seems gold will cool and consolidate as investors digest this week’s explosive movements. Technically speaking, we can’t place a downtrend line yet since we’re dealing with uncharted topside territory. However, we’ve laid a few downtrend lines to give an idea of support. It seems the $1050/oz level will play a psychological role for the time being. Regardless of current weakness, gold’s breakout to record highs sends a message of commitment to a longer-term uptrend in the precious metal. For the time being investors should keep an eye on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD and their interaction with their respective topside technical barriers should they be reached.

Present Price: $1052.45/oz

Resistances: $1053/oz, $1056.34/oz, $1058.54/oz.

Supports: $1049.24/oz, $1046.55/oz, $1042.63/oz, $1037.99/oz, $1035.54/oz.

Psychological: $1050/oz

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Gold Sprints to New All-Time Highs

Gold has bolted to new all-time highs after the RBA unexpectedly raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points. The RBA’s decision has resulted in a broad-based depreciation of the Dollar, particularly against the Aussie and Kiwi. The concept of the RBA beginning its exit-strategy has sent a shock throughout the FX market, allowing gold to break free of its month long consolidation. Gold blew past all of our downtrend lines, the psychological $1000/oz level and previous all-time highs. This is clearly a bullish movement for gold in regards to the precious metal’s longer-term outlook. Despite the broad-based depreciation of the Dollar coupled with a breakout in gold the EUR/USD and GBP/USD aren’t participating fully. Investors are waiting for the ECB and BoE meetings on Thursday. Since gold has been closely correlated with the EUR/USD, the currency pair’s reluctance of to break out of its own September highs could temper further gains in gold over the near-term. However, full participation by the EUR/USD would only accelerate gold’s present upward momentum. Gold’s current movements are so decisive that it’s irresponsible to place any resistances and supports on gold’s chart until the precious metal calms and forms a new base. However, the psychological 1050 level could carry some weight should it be tested. Meanwhile, investors should keep a close eye on the broad-based performance of the Dollar since it is more responsible for gold’s movements than U.S. equities.

Present Price: $1039.20/oz

Resistances: $1050/oz

Supports:

Psychological: $1050/oz


Monday, October 5, 2009

Gold Shines Amid Darkness Within Markets!!

After Friday's disappointing U.S. fundamentals, alongside instability overshadowing financial markets around the world, including stocks and commodities, we see precious metals stabilizing with general positivity. Gold was seen to enjoy the highest demand throughout last week despite of the decline seen along the week.

Gold managed to rise on Friday, where it closed at $1002.30 per ounce rising from 985.40; affected by demand helping it gain 0.24% after the decline it had witnessed. Instability and volatility across global financial markets and bearish movement for numerous equity indices and commodities last Friday pushed investors to look for other safer investments. Gold, for that, seemed to be the brightest metal of all after this pessimistic wave managed to overshadow financial markets, alongside the haziness surrounding the U.S. economy. Though the world’s largest economy has been providing signs of stability, yet the outlook does not look as strong as many hope and resuming growth remains to be surrounded with sluggish expectations.

Friday, October 2, 2009

Gold Pares Losses Following Disappointing Employment Data.

Gold is paring earlier losses, bouncing off of 9/29 lows and our 2nd tier uptrend line. Gold continues to hold strong above a key set of September lows despite the selloffs in the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. Furthermore, the S&P futures are finally experiencing the pullback analysts anticipated. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD are also trading above intraday lows, showing gold is tracking the Dollar more closely than equities as has been the norm throughout the economic downturn. Speaking of which, investors should recall that the EUR/USD has been the best correlation to track as far as gold is concerned. Coincidentally, we notice solid uptrend lines in both gold and the EUR/USD, whereas the Cable and USD/JPY have few near-term technical cushions. Therefore, gold should continue to be resilient should the market-wide pullback pick up momentum. However, there could come a breaking point in gold over time should its patience be tested. For the time being, gold has September 29th lows and our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines serving as technical cushions. Our 2nd tier uptrend line appears to carry more weight than our 1st tier. A failure of our 2nd tier could imply a rather quick pullback towards $975/oz. As for the topside, gold faces multiple downtrend lines, 9/30 highs, and of course the highly psychological $1000/oz level. While it’s wise to maintain a neutral outlook on gold trend-wise for the time being, the downtrend has a stronger case over the near-term considering the negative performance of the precious metals correlations.

Present Price: $995.45/oz

Resistances: $997.20/oz, $999.16/oz, $1001.13/oz, $1003.62/oz, $1006.12/oz, $1009.15/oz

Supports: $995.06/oz,$992.92/oz, $990.96/oz, $988.82/oz, $986.96/oz, $984.99/oz

Psychological: $1000/oz

Thursday, October 1, 2009

GOLD: Still Targeting The 1,024.00 Level.

GOLD: Although Gold is now backing off higher prices following its price halt at 985.10 and subsequent recovery higher, it continues to retain its overall medium term uptrends. With that said, the commodity has to now close back above its minor resistance at the 1,009.60 level to resume the mentioned recovery and open up upside risk towards the 1,024 level, its YTD high. Beyond the latter will create scope for a push towards its 2008 high at 1,030.85 with a break of there resuming its longer term uptrend targeting the 1,050 level initially and then the 1,100 level. Immediate support lies at the 985.10 level, its Sept 29’09 high with a clean break and hold below that level pushing Gold further to the downside towards the 969.90 level, its MT rising trendline. We envisage that the trendline will provide and cap declines if seen but a violation of there will expose the 930.03 level, representing its Aug 16’09 low. On the whole, our bias on Gold remains to the upside in the medium to longer term suggesting that its current price action remains corrective.